这个作业是用Excel整理股票数据并预测未来走势
Professional Development in Finance: Week Two

Part 1 (2 hrs)

• Log-in to WRDS and download the monthly average price from 2015-2019 for both
VRTX and JNJ.

• Compute four possible outcomes for the price of VRTX and their associated
probabilities.

o Using the price data you have for VRTX, generate a histogram (use 10 bins).
Does the distribution of prices look normal? In one or two sentences, comment
on the shape of your initial 10-bin distribution and what it might suggest about
the riskiness of this investment.

o When computing your price estimates, apply the concept of weighted averages.
First, use 10 bins and eliminate two “tail-end events.” Adjust the total number
observations accordingly. Consolidate your remaining bins and corresponding
prices using weighted averages. You should ultimately have four prices and four
probabilities. See below for an example (note: this example was not generated
with VRTX or JNJ data).

• Create a second histogram and table of probabilities using the price data for JNJ. Again,
does the initial 10-bin distribution of prices look normal? Comment on its shape and
what it might suggest about the riskiness of this investment.